According to The Kobeissi Letter, hedge funds' long-only positions in WTI Crude Oil have significantly decreased to 172,576 by the week ending March 4, marking a near-decade low since 2010. This represents a substantial reduction of approximately 100,000 long positions over recent weeks, coinciding with a decline in oil prices since mid-January.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, there's a significant discrepancy between the February non-farm payrolls and household survey data. While the job report indicated an addition of 151,000 non-farm payrolls, the household survey revealed that 588,000 Americans lost their jobs, resulting in a difference of 739,000 jobs. This inconsistency raises questions about the accuracy of job market assessments.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US job market is showing signs of underlying weakness, with a significant increase in part-time employment. In February, the number of people working part-time jobs while seeking full-time employment surged by 460,000, reaching 4.9 million, the highest level since May 2021. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of underemployed Americans has increased by 1.3 million, indicating a growing trend of underemployment in the US economy.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US job market is deteriorating beneath the surface, with a significant increase in underemployment. In February, the number of people working part-time jobs while seeking full-time employment surged by 460,000 to 4.9 million, marking the highest level since May 2021. Over the past 2.5 years, the underemployed population in the US has grown by 1.3 million.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the market probabilities of a US recession are increasing, with 5-year Treasuries now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November. Additionally, the recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index have surged to 48% from just 1% in November, signaling heightened market concerns over economic downturns.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, market probabilities of a US recession are increasing, with 5-year Treasuries now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November. Additionally, the recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index have surged to 48% from just 1% in November, signaling growing market concerns over a potential economic downturn.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Dollar Index ($DXY) fell by 3.5% last week, marking the second-largest drop since the 2020 pandemic. This decline positions the index for its third consecutive monthly decrease, primarily due to the Euro's 4.7% strengthening.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, call options volume on the Volatility Index ($VIX) reached approximately 1.5 million contracts last week, marking the 6th highest reading on record. This volume has doubled in recent weeks, reflecting a significant rise in market uncertainty.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Government's year-to-date deficit for FY2025 reached a record $1.15 trillion in February, marking a new high. This figure is $318 billion above the 2024 levels for the same period, representing an increase of approximately 38%. The situation is described as a crisis, indicating significant implications for fiscal policy and potentially impacting financial markets.

According to @RyanDetrick, over the last 20 years, March 12th marks the last day of the year with a negative average YTD return for the S&P 500. This historical trend offers some hope for bulls anticipating a market recovery, as reported by @KobeissiLetter.

According to @RyanDetrick, over the last 20 years, March 12th marks the last day of the year with a negative average YTD return for the S&P 500. This historical trend suggests a potential turning point for bullish traders, as past data indicates a shift towards positive returns following this date. Traders might consider this pattern when strategizing for the upcoming market movements, as cited by @KobeissiLetter.

According to @KobeissiLetter, gold prices are surging, with the market cap poised to exceed a record $20 trillion. This surge comes as the S&P 500 has lost over $5 trillion in value. Over the past 12 months, gold's returns have more than quadrupled those of the S&P 500, signaling a significant shift in investor confidence towards gold.

According to @KobeissiLetter, gold prices are surging, with the market cap poised to exceed a record $20 trillion. This surge comes as the S&P 500 has lost over $5 trillion in value. Over the past 12 months, gold's returns have more than quadrupled those of the S&P 500, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, S&P 500 futures have fallen by 120 points from their high, marking a significant reversal after the CPI inflation report. This movement indicates a strong market reaction to inflation data, potentially affecting trading strategies in the short term.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Canada has announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. goods. This action follows just 10 hours after the U.S. implemented 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, indicating a rapid escalation in trade tensions between the two nations.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Canada has imposed 25% retaliatory tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. goods. This action follows just 10 hours after the U.S. implemented 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, indicating a rapid escalation in trade tensions between the two nations.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin has surged above $84,000 after the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell more than expected. This significant movement in Bitcoin's price is directly linked to the latest inflation data, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin surged above $84,000 after the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported inflation falling more than expected. This significant price movement highlights the cryptocurrency's sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment towards risk assets in light of easing inflation pressures.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, S&P 500 futures surged as much as +100 points after the February CPI inflation report showed a decrease to 2.8%, lower than expected. This movement follows a previous 'short squeeze' call, with the S&P 500 now up +130 points since that prediction.

According to @KobeissiLetter, minutely candlestick charts for US tariffs, as reported by @JustinWolfers, are now available, showcasing a new level of detail in market analysis. This development indicates that the 'price action' in tariff charts is more liquid than some stocks, suggesting a significant shift in how traders can analyze and respond to tariff-related market movements.