According to @KobeissiLetter, the Fed must cut rates even with inflation at 3% to support strained consumers, and he expects additional cuts as large-cap tech rallies (source: @KobeissiLetter). For crypto trading, easier policy and lower real yields have historically coincided with stronger BTC and ETH performance due to tighter equity–crypto correlations since 2020 (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022 Global Financial Stability Note on crypto–equity correlation). Traders can track cut odds via fed funds futures, policy guidance via FOMC statements, and macro drivers via the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the U.S. Dollar Index to gauge risk-on momentum (sources: CME Group; Federal Reserve; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE). Catalyst watch: CPI releases and FOMC meetings are the key events that would validate or refute the rate-cut path and its impact on crypto liquidity and beta (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve).

According to @charliebilello, assets in U.S. money market funds have surpassed $8 trillion for the first time (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 2, 2025). He reports that inflows have continued despite a cumulative 150 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts since September 2024 (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 2, 2025). He also states that another 25 basis point rate cut is expected next week, a key timing marker for traders monitoring liquidity conditions across risk assets and crypto markets (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 2, 2025).

According to @BullTheoryio, U.S. money-market fund assets have reached a record $8 trillion, indicating a large pool of parked cash earning short-term yield while investors wait for the next move (source: @BullTheoryio). The source states the Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates, which will reduce money-market yields and push investors to reposition into higher-return assets as yields become less attractive (source: @BullTheoryio). With crypto access now available across major platforms, the source expects part of this liquidity to rotate into Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, creating potentially meaningful inflows that could move both crypto and stocks (source: @BullTheoryio). Based on the cited $8 trillion figure, a 1% reallocation would equate to roughly $80 billion in potential flows, underscoring the market impact of even small percentage shifts (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @simplykashif citing a new Grayscale report, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen roughly 30% since October, which Grayscale notes is consistent with about 50 similar drawdowns since 2010 and an average pullback near 30% (source: Grayscale). Grayscale adds that there have been nine dips since 2022 within an ongoing bull cycle, and the firm does not view the current move as the start of a deep bear phase (source: Grayscale). The report states that potential catalysts such as possible Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved U.S. crypto legislation could support market recovery and liquidity, and the firm expects new all-time highs next year (source: Grayscale). The historical takeaway highlighted by Grayscale is that such pullbacks are common in bull markets and have not typically derailed longer-term uptrends for patient holders (source: Grayscale).

According to @NFT5lut, Bitcoin (BTC) has come under strong selling pressure, with weakness spilling over to altcoins including MONAD, pressuring overall crypto market breadth, source: @NFT5lut. The author adds that renewed investor and institutional flows will hinge on how favorable upcoming US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are perceived, positioning monetary policy as the key near-term catalyst for crypto, source: @NFT5lut. Lower policy rates typically ease financial conditions and reduce discount rates, dynamics that have historically supported risk assets including crypto, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Traders should watch the FOMC statement and the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) for rate-path signals that could shift BTC and altcoin momentum, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the current macro mix includes Trump stating he will keep stocks at record highs, Magnificent 7 capital expenditures at $600B per year, the Fed cutting rates with inflation above 3%, global AI infrastructure spend at $1T per year, the Fed ending Quantitative Tightening in 2 days, and U.S. deficit spending above 6% (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, traders are focusing on the liquidity and fiscal backdrop highlighted by these points, which are typically relevant for risk assets including BTC and ETH due to sensitivity to rates, QE/QT shifts, and capex-driven growth cycles (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, monitoring the Fed’s QT end timeline, the path of rate cuts with 3%+ inflation, and mega-cap AI capex updates is central to positioning in crypto and equities (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, silver has surged to a new record high of $55 per ounce, up about 90% year-to-date in 2025, indicating a strong breakout in precious metals markets; source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 28, 2025. The author adds that deficit spending is soaring while the Federal Reserve is cutting rates with inflation running near 3%, underscoring a policy-easing and inflationary backdrop; source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 28, 2025. The post frames this environment as a call to own assets, signaling a bullish macro stance toward hard assets for traders; source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 28, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US private payrolls fell by an average of 13,500 per week over the four weeks ending November 8, worsening from a 2,500 decline per week in the prior period (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 25, 2025). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this deterioration signals a weak labor market and supports the view that the Federal Reserve must continue cutting interest rates, a key macro input for near-term trading decisions (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 25, 2025).

According to @GracyBitget, her HKUST Crypto Finance course used real-market case studies—the 3AC collapse, StepN’s economic-model death spiral, and the 10/11 record liquidation day—to train trader-focused risk management and pitfall avoidance, source: @GracyBitget. In an October classroom example, she advised against buying Circle stock due to revenue concentration on Coinbase and Binance and earnings sensitivity to potential Fed rate cuts, suggesting a revisit near $50–$60; she noted the price was $129 then and is $71 now, source: @GracyBitget. Key trading takeaway emphasized is to avoid narrative-only decisions by quantifying counterparty concentration and rate-cycle risk for stablecoin issuers and preparing for liquidation cascades during volatility spikes like 10/11, source: @GracyBitget.

According to Charlie Bilello, a 5% S&P 500 pullback set the plunge protection team in motion, underscoring a market addicted to easy money (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 21, 2025). He adds that with inflation averaging roughly 4% per year over the last five years, the Federal Reserve should be hiking rates instead of cutting and has lost credibility, framing policy as too accommodative for current price trends (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 21, 2025). For trading, Bilello’s stance signals that shallow equity drawdowns may coincide with easier policy expectations, a setup that traders often watch for liquidity-sensitive moves in BTC and ETH alongside real-yield and rate-cut headlines (Source: analysis based on Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 21, 2025).

According to @godbole17, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is up about 25 bps since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September last year, remaining firm despite market hopes for deeper easing. Source: https://twitter.com/godbole17/status/1991788508193939827 Elevated long-end yields tighten financial conditions by raising borrowing costs, a setup that typically pressures risk assets, including crypto. Source: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/financial-conditions-index Crypto assets have shown stronger comovement with equities and global financial conditions since 2020, increasing sensitivity to rate and liquidity dynamics that stem from higher Treasury yields. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2022/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2022 Traders should monitor the 10-year yield trend as a key macro driver for BTC and ETH performance during periods of sticky rates and constrained liquidity. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2022/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2022

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest in four years, and US stock index futures are surging as markets price in imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this bad-news-is-good-news setup reflects expectations that the Fed is being forced to cut policy rates despite a strong equity backdrop (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, such a shift in rate expectations tends to support risk appetite, which crypto traders may interpret as potential tailwinds for BTC and ETH if yields and the US dollar ease (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, traders should monitor rate-cut odds, Treasury yields, the US dollar, and cross-asset liquidity to gauge follow-through across equities and digital assets (source: The Kobeissi Letter).

According to Michaël van de Poppe, the unemployment rate printed higher than expected, signaling labor market weakness (source: Michaël van de Poppe on X, Nov 20, 2025). He states this could push the Federal Reserve toward quantitative easing and rate cuts if the weakness persists (source: Michaël van de Poppe on X, Nov 20, 2025). He adds that the print changes little technically for now, with PMI data due tomorrow as the next key release to watch (source: Michaël van de Poppe on X, Nov 20, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, all asset classes are trading sharply lower today, with intraday relief rallies being sold into new lows in a textbook emotional correction. According to @KobeissiLetter, this risk-off pattern has become increasingly common in 2025 amid record leverage and hypersensitivity to headlines. According to @KobeissiLetter, the broader macro thesis remains intact: deficit spending is surging, AI CapEx is nearing $1 trillion per year, and a weakening labor market means the Fed must cut rates even with inflation around 3%. According to @KobeissiLetter, this backdrop supports an S&P 500 target of 7,000 on the horizon. According to @KobeissiLetter, the cross-asset selloff includes crypto risk and warrants caution for BTC and ETH during deleveraging, with potential support later if rate cuts materialize.

According to @cryptorover, President Trump said US inflation will reach 1.5% soon, implying a potential pivot toward lower interest rates that matters for risk assets including Bitcoin BTC, source: Crypto Rover on X, Nov 10, 2025. @cryptorover states that lower inflation leads to cheaper loans and increased investing, framing this as a bullish catalyst for BTC and the broader crypto market via improved liquidity and risk appetite, source: Crypto Rover on X, Nov 10, 2025. Traders can track upcoming US CPI prints and rate cut expectations to validate the catalyst cited by @cryptorover and to gauge potential BTC momentum under easing financial conditions, source: Crypto Rover on X, Nov 10, 2025.

According to @GracyBitget, Bitcoin’s price is now primarily driven by US liquidity and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, reflecting heightened institutional dominance and Wall Street pricing power over BTC price action. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025). She adds that capital from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia is rotating into gold and equities, aligning with this year’s strength in gold, US AI-related stocks, and China’s equity index rather than BTC. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025). Looking ahead, she identifies two catalysts: the anticipated November end of the US government shutdown (with Polymarket’s market indicating Nov 14) and a potential December Fed shift to halt balance-sheet reduction and start a rate-cut cycle. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025); Polymarket (as cited by @GracyBitget). If both conditions are met, she argues BTC, as a highly liquidity-sensitive asset, could push toward $150,000 in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, consistent with her earlier $130K–$200K range. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025). Trading takeaway: prioritize US spot Bitcoin ETF net flow trends, Fed balance-sheet and rate-path signals, and the shutdown resolution timeline as near-term catalysts for BTC volatility and direction under this framework. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025). Risk to view: a prolonged shutdown or a Fed that maintains QT and delays cuts would undermine the setup outlined. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025).

According to @GracyBitget, Bitcoin’s price is now primarily driven by U.S. liquidity and Wall Street-led ETF inflows, while non-U.S. capital has tilted toward gold and equities, consistent with 2025 strength in gold, AI-related U.S. stocks, and China’s equity index, source: Gracy Chen on X, Nov 10, 2025, and Forbes, Nov 8, 2025. She highlights two potential catalysts for a new BTC bull leg: an end to the U.S. government shutdown around Nov 14 based on Polymarket odds, which could restart fiscal outlays and ease liquidity, and a December Federal Reserve shift that halts QT and begins rate cuts, source: Gracy Chen on X, Nov 10, 2025, and the Polymarket prediction market cited by Chen. Under these conditions, she reiterates a projection that BTC could make a run at new all-time highs with a path toward 150K after policy easing, noting her earlier 130K–200K scenario as contingent on liquidity returning, source: Gracy Chen on X, Nov 10, 2025. Trading takeaway: track daily U.S. spot BTC ETF net flows, shutdown resolution odds, FOMC signals on QT and cuts, and cross-asset flows into gold and AI equities to time BTC beta exposure, source: Gracy Chen on X, Nov 10, 2025, and Forbes, Nov 8, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US government is set to distribute more than 400 billion dollars in stimulus payments for the first time since 2021, alongside Fed rate cuts, inflation back above 3 percent, and a weakening labor market, which the author frames as bullish for risk assets. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 9, 2025. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Magnificent 7 companies are investing over 100 billion dollars per quarter in AI-related capital expenditures and stocks are at record highs, which the author says will add fuel to the bull market; risk assets commonly include cryptocurrencies and are sensitive to liquidity conditions. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 9, 2025; Source: Investopedia.

According to the source, Dan Niles said a Fed rate cut cycle and a return to quantitative easing would lead to broad gains across both the crypto and stock markets, stating "Everybody's gonna win," which traders can read as a risk-on signal tied to potential policy easing (source: public quote attributed to Dan Niles on Oct 28, 2025).

According to @Ashcryptoreal, the crypto total market cap remains in a bull trend, with panic sellers being flushed before a parabolic phase expected in the next 4–6 months; source: @Ashcryptoreal on X, Oct 26, 2025. The author cites expanding M2 money supply, an anticipated end to Fed quantitative tightening with potential quantitative easing, and 3–4 rate cuts within six months as key liquidity catalysts; source: @Ashcryptoreal on X, Oct 26, 2025. Additional drivers listed include US equities at new highs, gold at a $30 trillion valuation with possible rotation into Bitcoin (BTC) after stabilization, and forthcoming US crypto-friendly regulations; source: @Ashcryptoreal on X, Oct 26, 2025. The author also notes 155 altcoin ETF filings that could be approved after a government shutdown, framing a setup for a parabolic rally in BTC and altcoins if these catalysts materialize; source: @Ashcryptoreal on X, Oct 26, 2025.