According to Edward Dowd, his December 11, 2025 post on X asked whether anyone is advising the President, without offering policy specifics, providing a prompt for traders to assess political-risk exposure across risk assets. Source: Edward Dowd on X https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1999203232611270885 For trading context, elevated US Economic Policy Uncertainty has historically aligned with higher equity volatility and weaker risk-asset performance, as evidenced by the Baker-Bloom-Davis EPU index and the Cboe VIX. Source: policyuncertainty.com; Cboe VIX overview https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/ During risk-off periods, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a stronger correlation with US equities since 2020, indicating heightened sensitivity of crypto to macro shocks and equity drawdowns. Source: IMF blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022 https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks Tighter financial conditions, a stronger US dollar (DXY), and rising US 10-year real yields have been associated with broad risk-asset pressure, coinciding with notable crypto drawdowns in past cycles. Source: BIS Quarterly Review December 2022 Crypto shocks and retail losses https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212b.htm; Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/financial-stability-report.htm Actionable watchlist for political-risk episodes: EPU index, VIX, BTC-Nasdaq 100 correlation, DXY, and 10-year real yields, which historically signaled higher realized volatility and potential de-risking in crypto and equities. Source: policyuncertainty.com; Cboe VIX overview https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/; IMF blog https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks; FRED real yields DFII10 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10; FRED broad dollar index DTWEXBGS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS

According to @danheld, the core bet is unlimited fiat supply competing for a fixed 21 million BTC, putting Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity at the center of the trade thesis. Source: @danheld (X, Dec 11, 2025). Bitcoin’s maximum supply is hard-capped at 21 million by consensus rules, with issuance reduced via halvings every 210,000 blocks until roughly 2140. Source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide and BIP-42 (Bitcoin Core). Fiat money supply is elastic and can be expanded by central banks through tools like asset purchases and lending facilities, affecting purchasing power via policy and credit growth. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System education resources and IMF monetary policy primers. For trading, a fixed BTC supply means marginal demand from regulated vehicles such as US spot BTC ETFs can have outsized price impact when liquidity expands. Source: U.S. SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan 10, 2024 and related SEC orders. Effective tradable float may be lower than 21 million due to provably lost or long-dormant coins, reducing immediate market supply. Source: Chainalysis estimate of 2.78 to 3.79 million lost coins (2017 report). Key liquidity indicators traders monitor for BTC risk exposure include global M2 growth, USD strength via DXY, and U.S. real yields from TIPS. Source: World Bank Broad Money (M2) dataset, ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology, and U.S. Treasury real yield data. Research frameworks emphasize liquidity and real yields as major drivers of Bitcoin performance, supporting process-driven entries and sizing beyond narratives alone. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Bitcoin First (2022) and ARK Invest Bitcoin Monthly research.

According to @WatcherGuru, the US trade deficit has fallen to the lowest level since 2020, indicating a narrower gap between exports and imports (source: @WatcherGuru). A narrower deficit mechanically adds to net exports and contributes positively to real GDP under NIPA accounting, which can firm US Treasury yields and the US dollar in the near term (source: Bureau of Economic Analysis). A stronger USD and higher real yields have historically coincided with headwinds for BTC and ETH due to periods of negative correlation with DXY and dollar liquidity proxies (source: Kaiko Research; Coin Metrics). Crypto performance also tends to soften when USD financial conditions tighten, while export-driven improvements in trade can support risk sentiment if they lift growth without materially tightening liquidity (source: Federal Reserve Financial Stability Reports; BIS Quarterly Review). Traders should monitor the official US International Trade in Goods and Services release for detail on whether the improvement stems from export strength or import weakness, as the driver has different implications for risk appetite and crypto flows (source: U.S. Census Bureau and BEA).

According to @charliebilello, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services totaled $766 billion in the first nine months of 2025 versus $653 billion in the same period of 2024, a 17% year-over-year increase and a record high. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. In U.S. national accounts, a larger trade deficit reduces GDP via the net exports component (NX), making the print relevant for rate expectations and USD positioning. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Handbook. Crypto traders can monitor USD moves and U.S. real yields for potential spillovers to BTC and ETH, which are broadly quoted in USD across major venues and via CME-listed bitcoin futures. Source: CME Group contract specifications for Bitcoin futures; exchange USD-quoted BTCUSD and ETHUSD markets.

According to @StockMKTNewz, President Trump said the US stock market "just hit an all-time high" on Dec 11, 2025, a development traders watch for risk-on spillover. According to Kaiko research, BTC has often exhibited a positive rolling correlation with US equity indices during risk-on regimes in 2022–2023, making equity strength a relevant input for crypto positioning. According to Coin Metrics’ State of the Network, BTC performance has historically moved inversely with the US Dollar Index and shown sensitivity to US real yields, so traders monitor DXY and Treasury yields alongside S&P 500 futures after equity highs. According to CME Group, near-24-hour liquidity in E-mini S&P 500 futures provides cross-asset confirmation or divergence signals that crypto traders can incorporate into intraday setups.

According to @AltcoinDaily, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Dec 10, 2025 (source: Altcoin Daily on X, Dec 10, 2025). A 25-basis-point move equals 0.25 percentage points, and policy rate adjustments transmit to markets by lowering short-term yields and easing financial conditions, key drivers traders track via DXY, U.S. 2-year Treasury yields, and real rates (sources: U.S. SEC Investor.gov; Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Transmission). Historical analyses show crypto’s correlation with equities increases during easier financial conditions, making BTC and ETH sensitive to liquidity shifts after rate cuts (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022 analysis on crypto–stock correlation).

According to @WatcherGuru, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed believes recent job gains have been overstated by about 60,000 in recent months, aligning with the Fed’s focus on labor data within its dual mandate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Chair Powell press remarks; Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy and the Dual Mandate. For trading, a weaker underlying labor picture typically increases market-implied odds of policy easing and can pressure front-end Treasury yields and the US dollar, metrics closely watched by BTC and ETH traders for liquidity and risk-sentiment cues. Source: CME Group, FedWatch Tool methodology on interest rate expectations; Coin Metrics, State of the Network research on macro-crypto correlations.

According to @WatcherGuru, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policy rates will stay the same or be cut a little or a lot, adding that a rate hike is not anyone's base case. Source: Watcher.Guru post on X dated Dec 10, 2025. A pivot away from hikes reduces expected discount rates and tends to lift risk-asset valuations by easing financial conditions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Education resources on how monetary policy affects the economy; Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report. For crypto, periods of falling U.S. yields have coincided with stronger performance and higher beta versus equities, with BTC and ETH showing increased correlation to risk-on moves. Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2023; Kaiko Research correlation analyses 2023–2024. Traders can watch the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and DXY for confirmation, as declines in these indicators have aligned with crypto upside during prior dovish shifts. Source: CME Group education on interest rates and FX; Coin Metrics market data on BTC sensitivity to yields.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a rate hike is not anyone's base case and policy is either holding, cutting a little, or cutting a lot. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Dec 10, 2025. This guidance reduces perceived hike risk and is typically supportive for risk assets and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as easier financial conditions lower discount rates. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Report (June 2023) on monetary policy transmission to financial conditions. Crypto traders should watch 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) for confirmation, as BTC has shown periods of inverse co-movement with yields and the dollar during easing shifts. Source: Bank for International Settlements research on crypto market behavior (2023) and Federal Reserve Economic Data for UST2Y and DXY.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Fed Chair Powell said US Treasury purchases may remain elevated for a few months and the Fed will buy 40 billion dollars over the next 30 days, only 12 days after quantitative tightening ended. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X. At that rate, the schedule implies roughly 1.3 billion dollars per day of Treasury demand in the next month, temporarily reducing net supply. Sources: The Kobeissi Letter on X for amounts and timing; Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Domestic Open Market Operations, for the mechanism that Fed purchases add bank reserves. Crypto traders monitor Fed purchase flow and reserve changes as liquidity inputs that can influence BTC and ETH risk conditions and volatility. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Domestic Open Market Operations; Bank for International Settlements 2022 research on global liquidity and crypto markets.

According to @CNBC, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is discussing a third interest rate cut this year in a live update on Dec 10, 2025, signaling additional monetary easing under review. source: CNBC. The Federal Reserve explains that rate cuts work by lowering borrowing costs and easing financial conditions, variables closely linked to the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields that traders track for risk sentiment shifts. source: Federal Reserve Board. Research from the Bank for International Settlements documents that crypto asset performance is sensitive to global financial conditions and U.S. monetary policy surprises, tying BTC and ETH to policy guidance and real-rate moves. source: Bank for International Settlements. The International Monetary Fund reports that crypto returns have shown elevated correlation with U.S. equities during accommodative financial conditions, reinforcing the transmission of dovish policy signals to digital-asset beta. source: International Monetary Fund. Fidelity Digital Assets finds that Bitcoin’s performance tends to improve when real yields decline, making the 2-year Treasury yield, DXY, and inflation-adjusted yields key indicators during Powell’s remarks. sources: Fidelity Digital Assets; Federal Reserve Board.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said "Conditions in the labor market are cooling, and inflation remains somewhat elevated" on Dec 10, 2025, highlighting a mixed macro backdrop. Source: @KobeissiLetter. @KobeissiLetter characterized the comment as another way to say stagflation, pointing to slowing jobs momentum alongside sticky prices. Source: @KobeissiLetter. For trading, commonly watched gauges in this backdrop are Fed rate expectations on CME FedWatch, U.S. Treasury 2Y/10Y yields, ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and BTC, ETH futures basis and funding on CME and major crypto exchanges. Sources: CME Group; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE; CME Group; Binance, OKX, Coinbase public market data. For exact wording, traders should verify the official transcript on the Federal Reserve website. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

According to the source, BTC and ETH showed choppy price action after the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut in its latest FOMC statement, prompting immediate volatility across major crypto pairs (source: Federal Reserve). Lower policy rates typically compress front-end Treasury yields and can weigh on the U.S. dollar, conditions that have historically coincided with improved risk appetite in cryptocurrencies (source: Federal Reserve; source: Bank for International Settlements). For confirmation of risk-on follow-through, traders are monitoring DXY and the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield alongside BTC and ETH perpetual funding and open interest into the daily and weekly closes (source: TradingView; source: major crypto derivatives exchange dashboards). A constructive setup would be a BTC and ETH daily close above their 20-day moving averages with rising open interest on neutral-to-positive funding, while a DXY rebound and a bounce in 2-year yields would flag risk-off and potential downside continuation in crypto (source: TradingView; source: major crypto derivatives exchange dashboards).

According to @AltcoinDaily, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 bps, signaling an easier policy stance that can shift liquidity and risk appetite across crypto markets, especially BTC and ETH (source: @AltcoinDaily on Twitter, Dec 10, 2025). Traders should focus on the FOMC statement and projections to gauge the forward path that drives USD, front-end yields, and crypto volatility; watch DXY, U.S. 2y/10y Treasury yields, BTC spot-futures basis, and funding rates for transmission of the policy move into price action (sources: Federal Reserve Board FOMC Statements and Summary of Economic Projections; Federal Reserve H.15; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; CME Bitcoin Futures data).

According to @BullTheoryio, the Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion of Treasury bills over the next 30 days starting December 12, 2025. Source: @BullTheoryio on X, December 10, 2025. Traders should seek official confirmation via the New York Fed’s SOMA purchase schedule, which publishes planned Treasury operations before execution. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, System Open Market Account (SOMA) operations disclosures. Bill purchases add bank reserves and can ease short-term funding conditions, a tool the Fed deployed in 2019 to maintain ample reserves while clarifying it was not QE. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Statement on Treasury bill purchases, October 11, 2019. Periods of Fed balance sheet expansion have historically coincided with stronger risk-asset performance, and BTC has tended to benefit during liquidity upswings. Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 Statistical Release (total assets, WALCL via FRED) and Bitcoin price series via FRED. If confirmed, increased bill buying would typically pressure front-end yields lower and weigh on the U.S. dollar, conditions associated with easier financial settings that have aligned with crypto risk-on episodes. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury (yield data), ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology, and BIS Quarterly Review 2022 on crypto’s sensitivity to global liquidity.

According to @StockMarketNerd, the latest policy setup is “basically QE,” signaling QE-like liquidity conditions that traders should factor into risk positioning (Source: @StockMarketNerd on X, Dec 10, 2025). QE expands central bank balance sheets via large-scale asset purchases, increasing bank reserves and lowering term premia, which eases financial conditions that markets track through yields and the dollar (Source: Federal Reserve Board; Bank of England). For crypto, lower real yields and looser dollar liquidity have been associated with stronger BTC and ETH beta and activity; monitor DXY, US 10Y real yield, and stablecoin netflows as crypto liquidity proxies (Source: Coin Metrics; Kaiko).

According to @CoinMarketCap, the US Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, a policy change that traders often view as a liquidity tailwind for crypto such as BTC and ETH. source: @CoinMarketCap (Dec 10, 2025 tweet); source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Monetary Policy Report (policy transmission). A 25 bp cut lowers the policy target range by 0.25 percentage points and eases financial conditions through interest rates, credit, and asset prices, which tends to support risk assets. source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Monetary Policy Report (policy transmission). For trade execution, monitor DXY and the US 2-year Treasury yield; softening in the dollar and front-end yields often accompanies easing expectations and can align with crypto beta strength. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, How Monetary Policy Affects the Economy; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) on policy sensitivity of the 2-year yield. Expect heightened volatility around the FOMC window; options markets around policy decisions typically price larger moves, which can affect BTC and ETH implied volatility and perp funding. source: CME Group research on event-driven volatility; Deribit Insights on implied volatility into macro events.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve currently expect only one rate cut in 2026 and one rate cut in 2027, indicating a very slow easing path, source: @StockMKTNewz. Based on @StockMKTNewz's report, traders can anchor macro scenarios to a one-cut-per-year path when pricing dollar liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk assets including BTC and ETH, source: @StockMKTNewz. Based on @StockMKTNewz's report, immediate trade focus includes monitoring DXY, the 2Y and 10Y yields, and crypto volatility for any repricing to a higher-for-longer path, with position sizing and hedges adjusted accordingly, source: @StockMKTNewz.

According to @BullTheoryio, the US Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 bps, a move framed as long-term bullish for markets. source: @BullTheoryio on X Traders should confirm the final target range and statement language via the Federal Reserve FOMC release before positioning. source: Federal Reserve Board FOMC communications Lower policy rates reduce short-term funding costs and ease financial conditions, dynamics that have historically supported risk assets including BTC and ETH during easing cycles. source: Federal Reserve Board Monetary Policy resources; Kaiko research on crypto sensitivity to yields Key crypto signals to monitor after a reported cut: US 2-year Treasury yields and DXY trending lower, S&P 500 futures strength, and widening BTC and ETH futures basis and positive perp funding. source: TradingView market data; CME futures data; Deribit futures term structure; major exchange funding rate pages Risk management note: price action around the FOMC statement and chair remarks can be volatile; confirm timing and guidance tone before executing any strategy. source: Federal Reserve press conference schedule; Kaiko market microstructure notes on FOMC days

According to @StockMKTNewz, Citi's Head of US Personal Banking said consumer spending remains robust and resilient, signaling firm demand that traders may treat as growth-supportive into year-end, source: @StockMKTNewz. For macro positioning, robust spending can reinforce expectations of stickier inflation and a higher-for-longer policy path, a setup that typically supports front-end Treasury yields and the US dollar (DXY), source: @StockMKTNewz. In equities, this backdrop tends to favor banks and card/payment networks (strong volume, better credit performance) while pressuring long-duration tech if yields rise, source: @StockMKTNewz. For crypto, a stronger DXY and higher real yields are commonly headwinds for BTC and ETH in the near term, while risk-on tone could stabilize if markets fade rate fears; traders may lean defensive on BTC and rotate on strength until data confirm or refute the spending view, source: @StockMKTNewz. Key confirmations to watch following this comment include upcoming US retail sales and CPI prints as catalysts for DXY, UST yields, and BTC volatility, source: @StockMKTNewz.