According to @BitMEXResearch, the Bitcoin and quantum risk debate is pretty much unchanged since 2011, source: @BitMEXResearch. According to @BitMEXResearch, they have no idea if quantum technology itself has meaningfully developed since 2011, source: @BitMEXResearch. According to @BitMEXResearch, Bitcoin post-quantum cryptography techniques have improved considerably since 2011, source: @BitMEXResearch. According to @BitMEXResearch, the thread focuses on the potential risks quantum computers could pose to Bitcoin and how Bitcoin could mitigate that risk, noting this debate is nothing new, source: @BitMEXResearch. According to @BitMEXResearch, the discussion cites the 2008 Post-Quantum Cryptography work by Daniel Bernstein and others as background to the long-running conversation on mitigation, source: @BitMEXResearch.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin could be broken by quantum computers within 2–9 years, with the highest probability in 4–5 years if the network does not upgrade its cryptography, a risk he terms the Quantum Event Horizon, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Dec 19, 2025. Bitcoin relies on ECDSA secp256k1 for transaction signatures, which are vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm on sufficiently large quantum computers, grounding the technical risk thesis for traders, source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide (ECDSA secp256k1) and P. W. Shor (1994) Algorithms for Quantum Computation. NIST finalized post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024, including ML-DSA (CRYSTALS-Dilithium) for signatures and ML-KEM (CRYSTALS-Kyber) for key encapsulation, indicating a potential migration path markets will monitor for Bitcoin security upgrades, source: NIST news release, July 2024, Finalization of First PQC Standards (FIPS 203/204). Security-risk headlines have historically coincided with higher crypto volatility, suggesting BTC options skew and downside hedging may reprice around quantum-risk narratives, source: Bank for International Settlements, BIS Bulletin No. 65 (2022) on crypto market shocks and volatility.

According to @caprioleio, VanEck’s CEO stated they are prepared to dump Bitcoin if its quantum risk increases, signaling a defined institutional risk threshold for BTC exposure (source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 22, 2025). The same post urges quantum‑proofing Bitcoin in 2026, creating a specific timeline reference for protocol hardening discussions that traders can track (source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 22, 2025). VanEck operates the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF HODL, making the CEO’s stance directly relevant to ETF‑held BTC exposure and risk management policies (source: VanEck; source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 22, 2025).

According to Charles Edwards (@caprioleio), up to 20–30% of BTC held in legacy P2PK outputs could be taken by a future quantum computer within 2–8 years, and he proposes either allowing theft-related dumping or enforcing a migration window that burns unmigrated coins (source: Charles Edwards on X, Oct 15, 2025). According to Bitcoin Wiki, P2PK outputs reveal public keys on-chain, leaving any unspent P2PK UTXOs inherently exposed if Shor’s algorithm breaks secp256k1 ECDSA (source: Bitcoin Wiki, Pay-to-Pubkey). According to NIST’s Post-Quantum Cryptography program, no cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists today, though ECDSA is not quantum-safe and migration to standardized PQC schemes like CRYSTALS-Dilithium will be required once timelines warrant (source: NIST PQC status reports, 2022–2024). According to Roetteler et al. (Microsoft Research), breaking a single secp256k1 key demands very large fault-tolerant quantum resources beyond current hardware, making the specific 2–8 year horizon uncertain for traders to price (source: Roetteler et al., 2017, Quantum Resource Estimates for ECC).

According to @caprioleio, he is very long Bitcoin and expects BTC to go higher in the next months, indicating his near-term bullish outlook for price action, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 8, 2025. He warns that Bitcoin needs an agreed quantum-safe solution by 2026 at the latest to mitigate quantum risk, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 8, 2025. He adds that if the network is even one minute late on quantum readiness, Bitcoin could go to zero, highlighting a time-critical security risk for BTC holders, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 8, 2025. This frames a trading stance of near-term bullishness with a clearly defined 2026 security deadline risk, per @caprioleio, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 8, 2025.