According to @CryptoMichNL, the current roughly 35% BTC drawdown fits a still-intact Bitcoin cycle that no longer aligns neatly with the 4-year halving timeline and should be evaluated through macro and flow indicators, source: @CryptoMichNL. The author argues that spot ETF demand has added nearly 60,000 BTC of buy pressure and lifted BTC’s effective floor from the $30k–$40k range toward $80k–$120k, shifting price action toward institutional flows rather than a pure halving-driven supply model, source: @CryptoMichNL. He highlights that risk assets tend to struggle when Gold accelerates, so traders should track Gold strength, PMI trends, QT and high rates, and USD dynamics to gauge risk-on conditions for BTC, source: @CryptoMichNL. He notes a recurring relationship where CNY/USD bottoms aligned with ETH/BTC bottoms in 2016, 2019, and April 2025, implying today’s placement resembles mid-2016 or late-2019 rather than a late-cycle top, source: @CryptoMichNL. From the business-cycle lens, PMI is starting to improve while the Federal Reserve has begun overnight repos, placing markets near a cycle trough consistent with prior early-bull phases, source: @CryptoMichNL. Forward-looking drivers cited include major bank allocation channels to spot BTC ETFs, pro-clarity policy steps for DeFi, and potential monetary easing, while cautioning against rigidly anchoring to the 4-year template, source: @CryptoMichNL. Trading takeaway: favor buy-the-dip accumulation with strict risk controls while monitoring Gold strength, CNY/USD, ETH/BTC, PMI, and ETF flow trends, with the expectation of moderating volatility and yearly returns as BTC matures, source: @CryptoMichNL.

According to @CryptoMichNL, the current crypto cycle is far from over because no key indicators have peaked, retail interest remains muted, and BTC lacks the extreme overvaluation seen in gold and other commodities; source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Nov 30, 2025. For traders, this view argues against time-based top-calling in BTC and supports a continuation-bias framework rather than a completed peak; source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Nov 30, 2025.

According to @CryptoMichNL, he collaborated with @therationalroot to use on-chain data to identify potential BTC market bottoms and tops and released a video asking whether BTC has already reached a bottom; source: @CryptoMichNL on X and YouTube. The post directs traders to the clip for the full on-chain methodology and signals under review, highlighting a timing-focused approach to BTC entries and exits; source: @CryptoMichNL on X and YouTube.

According to @CryptoMichNL, the Bitcoin cycle is not over and he urges traders to buy the dip rather than capitulate, indicating a dip-accumulation strategy for BTC exposure (source: X post by @CryptoMichNL, Nov 21, 2025). He further signals positioning for a continued uptrend with an anticipated bull market in 2026, pointing to a longer holding horizon for Bitcoin allocations (source: X post by @CryptoMichNL, Nov 21, 2025).

According to Miles Deutscher on X on Nov 21, 2025, the prior BTC cycle driven by DAT buying, SBR hype, and record ETF flows has ended, signaling a transition into a floor-finding phase before the next catalyst (source: Miles Deutscher on X, Nov 21, 2025). According to Miles Deutscher on X on Nov 21, 2025, he rejects a fixed 4-year cycle and argues BTC now trades as a macro asset led by flows and narratives rather than halving timelines (source: Miles Deutscher on X, Nov 21, 2025). According to Miles Deutscher on X on Nov 21, 2025, the next upside trigger could arrive within weeks to months via fiat debasement, an AI energy race, or broader liquidity expansion, implying traders should adapt positioning to macro-driven volatility and range dynamics (source: Miles Deutscher on X, Nov 21, 2025).

According to @cas_abbe, a whale purchased 1,130 BTC worth about $117 million in the past 24 hours, which he says is helping Bitcoin hold above the $100,000 level (source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 12, 2025). According to @cas_abbe, persistent dip-buying by large entities is a key factor and he suggests this dynamic could mark a shift relative to Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle (source: @cas_abbe). For trading, @cas_abbe’s post highlights $100,000 as an immediate support to monitor, with whale accumulation acting as a potential floor mechanism during pullbacks (source: @cas_abbe).

According to Farside Investors, the team appeared on the CFA UK podcast to discuss seven trading-relevant topics: crypto equity investment strategies, the background to Farside Investors, the Farside ETF flow dashboard, current market cycle positioning, MicroStrategy (MSTR), the Blocksize War, and the history of perpetuals; source: Farside Investors via X on 2025-10-29. According to Farside Investors, the agenda includes the Farside ETF flow dashboard, which tracks spot Bitcoin ETF net flows, a data stream closely watched for BTC market context; source: Farside Investors via X on 2025-10-29.

According to @AltcoinDaily, Raoul Pal stated that the Bitcoin market cycle has shifted from four years to five years, with a projected BTC peak in Q2 2026, source: @AltcoinDaily, Oct 21, 2025 on X. This timeline suggests traders using halving-based models may need to extend cycle expectations, adjust position sizing, and plan exits closer to mid-2026, source: @AltcoinDaily, Oct 21, 2025 on X. The claim implies a longer runway for momentum and liquidity rotation across BTC and majors before a cycle top, which is relevant for timing risk management and profit-taking plans, source: @AltcoinDaily, Oct 21, 2025 on X.

According to @caprioleio, he appeared on BTC_Archive to discuss a $19B BTC liquidation, massive institutional buying, the quantum threat to cryptography, the death of the traditional Bitcoin cycle, and his six-month market outlook, with a full interview linked for details, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 20, 2025, and the linked YouTube interview. These topics were explicitly highlighted by @caprioleio as the focus of the session, providing traders with a consolidated set of near-term and structural drivers to review, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 20, 2025, and the linked YouTube interview.

According to @caprioleio, he appeared on BTC_Archive last week to discuss a 19B liquidation event, heavy institutional buying, the quantum threat to Bitcoin, the end of the traditional Bitcoin cycle narrative, and a 6-month BTC market outlook, underscoring key drivers for traders to watch. Source: Charles Edwards @caprioleio on X, Oct 20, 2025, https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1980130861149532484. For trading relevance, the post centers on liquidation risk management, tracking institutional accumulation signals, and medium-term catalysts that could influence BTC volatility and price discovery over the next six months. Source: Charles Edwards @caprioleio on X, Oct 20, 2025, https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1980130861149532484. The author provided a link to the full discussion for detailed context and analysis. Source: Charles Edwards @caprioleio on X, Oct 20, 2025, https://lnkd.in/gn-CQS4k.

According to @AltcoinDaily, Raoul Pal said the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle has shifted to a 5-year cycle (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Sep 25, 2025). According to @AltcoinDaily, he expects BTC to peak in Q2 2026, indicating a later cycle top than many 2025-based timelines (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Sep 25, 2025). According to @AltcoinDaily, traders may align positioning and risk-reduction plans closer to Q2 2026 rather than 2025 if following this framework, and extend trend-following or DCA horizons accordingly (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Sep 25, 2025).

According to @CryptoMichNL, the traditional 4-year cycle no longer applies and a longer cycle with unprecedented valuations for BTC and altcoins could play out before a major crisis, based on his X post dated Sep 20, 2025 (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Sep 20, 2025). For traders adopting this thesis, positioning may favor extended holding horizons for BTC and high-beta altcoins, staggered profit-taking into strength, and maintaining hedges or cash buffers for a potential macro shock, as direct implications of his longer-cycle-then-crisis view (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Sep 20, 2025). Cycle-timing models anchored to halving assumptions may require reassessment under his framework, including recalibrating drawdown expectations and liquidity management for a prolonged upswing followed by stress, as inferred from his stated outlook (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Sep 20, 2025).

According to @rovercrc, the post asks whether this Bitcoin cycle is different and provides no price levels, on-chain metrics, or timeframes, making it a sentiment prompt rather than a data-backed update, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 6, 2025. According to @rovercrc, the post contains no trading setups, catalysts, or confirmations, so it does not constitute an actionable signal by itself and should be treated strictly as sentiment, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 6, 2025. According to @rovercrc, there is no mention of BTC support or resistance, funding rates, or volatility cues in the post, so it does not alter risk management or positioning on its own, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 6, 2025. According to @rovercrc, any additional context would need to come from subsequent replies or follow-up posts, as this specific post adds no verifiable fundamentals or technicals, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 6, 2025.

According to @CryptoMichNL, many market participants are assuming the bull market is nearly over and are positioning for a repeat of Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle, source: @CryptoMichNL. He states the probability of a much longer BTC cycle has increased and declares the 4-year cycle is over, signaling a shift in timing frameworks that traders may consider when planning entries and exits, source: @CryptoMichNL.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, a post on X claims Bitcoin may be entering a supercycle, implying a potential path for BTC toward 1,000,000 dollars, source: @MilkRoadDaily, X, Aug 14, 2025. The post does not provide a timeline, specific price levels, or supporting metrics such as ETF net flows, on-chain supply data, or derivatives positioning to substantiate the claim, source: @MilkRoadDaily, X, Aug 14, 2025. For trading purposes, the post contains no actionable entries, exits, or risk parameters, meaning traders would need independent confirmation from quantifiable indicators since these were not included in the post, source: @MilkRoadDaily, X, Aug 14, 2025.

According to @adam3us, some market participants count the prior BTC cycle top as November 2021 around 69k, implying a four-year interval that would place a potential top in November 2025 about three months from his post date. Source: @adam3us on X, 2025-08-13, https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1955620155859345875 He adds that it does not feel like the bull market will fade within the next three months. Source: @adam3us on X, 2025-08-13, https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1955620155859345875 He expects more BTC all-time highs later, indicating a bullish bias against the common four-year-top narrative and suggesting continued upside risk beyond November 2025. Source: @adam3us on X, 2025-08-13, https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1955620155859345875

According to @AltcoinGordon, understanding the current phase of the Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is crucial for traders aiming to optimize entry and exit points. The shared analysis highlights the importance of identifying where BTC stands in its price cycle, which can inform short-term and long-term trading strategies. Traders are urged to monitor on-chain data, historical cycle patterns, and macroeconomic signals to better anticipate potential market movements and manage risk exposure effectively (source: @AltcoinGordon).

According to Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), despite widespread commentary that the 2025 cycle is a Bitcoin-only (BTC) run, historical trends from the 2020 cycle show that altcoins eventually outperformed Bitcoin after similar initial narratives. This suggests that traders holding altcoin portfolios may be positioning for potential outperformance as market rotations develop, a strategy supported by previous cycles (Source: Twitter/@CryptoMichNL).

According to Crypto Rover (@rovercrc), the current cryptocurrency market has experienced multiple bear traps and fakeouts, making this cycle especially difficult for traders. Rover asserts that despite these challenges, the market is poised for significant rewards, forecasting that the next six months will present strong bullish opportunities for Bitcoin and major altcoins. Traders are advised to closely monitor breakout patterns and volume surges that could signal the beginning of this anticipated upward trend (source: Crypto Rover on Twitter, June 10, 2025).

According to André Dragosch (@Andre_Dragosch), current market conditions suggest Bitcoin may be entering the start of a new cycle, rather than concluding the typical four-year pattern. Dragosch highlights that demand-side factors are now more influential than supply dynamics, a shift observable in recent trading volumes and institutional inflows (source: Twitter, June 5, 2025). Traders should closely monitor evolving demand signals, as this transition could drive higher price volatility and new all-time highs, impacting both short-term and long-term crypto strategies.