According to @Andre_Dragosch, the shared model shows the average BTC path after the Relative Strength Index drops below 30 at t=0, with price action so far closely tracking the historical trajectory, which is relevant for timing entries after oversold conditions and managing risk during recoveries; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the view presented rejects the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle, arguing the cycle has been broken and likely extends well into 2026 based on business cycle work, current financial conditions, and expected liquidity, which supports a medium-term bullish bias; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the rationale ties the prior 4-year rhythm to the public debt refinancing cycle rather than the halving, noting an increase in the weighted average maturity of the debt structure and large interest expense needing monetization as structural liquidity drivers, which is constructive for BTC risk allocation; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI. According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders should expect base-building with choppy ranges before a larger up-move, favoring a disciplined accumulation approach and patience, aligning with the “stay humble and stack sats” mindset for DCA and position adds on dips; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin’s Lightning Network capacity has reached a record 5,606 BTC, relayed from @BitcoinArchive’s update on X (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X; @BitcoinArchive on X). The post labels the milestone as 'The Square Effect,' while the source update does not provide additional trading or price data (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, oil and gold rose while Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq declined around a fresh geopolitical risk shock, signaling a near-term risk-off regime for crypto and equities (source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/2001419304827224155). He reports that across the top 20 geopolitical risk events since BTC’s inception, BTC averaged +64.6% by day 50 after the event with a +17.3% median, framing geopolitics as short-term bearish but medium-term bullish for BTC (source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, https://x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1933498166516891804). He advises planning for initial downside followed by potential medium-term upside consistent with this historical 50-day rebound pattern (source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/2001419304827224155; https://x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1933498166516891804).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, DocumentingBTC published a video map showing Bitcoin (BTC) payment merchant adoption by U.S. state on X, highlighting where BTC payments are currently supported by merchants; this shared resource gives traders a concrete, state-by-state view of BTC payment penetration for assessing regional adoption signals. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X; DocumentingBTC on X. The post does not disclose quantitative counts or rankings by state, indicating the content is a visual overview rather than a detailed dataset. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X; DocumentingBTC on X.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the FOMC stated it will initiate the purchase of short-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis, highlighting a reserve-management focus that can add banking system liquidity if activated (Source: Federal Reserve statement excerpt cited by Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 12, 2025). Dragosch also states the Fed has been buying at the long end despite QT and characterizes this as a return to asset purchases across the curve, which he flags as significant for market pricing of duration and liquidity risk (Source: Andre Dragosch on X; chart attribution: Econimica). For trading, monitor front-end bill yields versus ON RRP usage, weekly reserve balances on H.4.1, 2Y/10Y UST curve levels, USD DXY, and crypto liquidity proxies such as stablecoin net issuance to gauge cross-asset liquidity transmission, including potential impacts on BTC and ETH (Sources: Federal Reserve H.4.1 and ON RRP releases; U.S. Treasury yield data; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; public stablecoin supply dashboards).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin (BTC) sold off on the FOMC headlines as long-dated bond yields rose on developments in Japan and France, source @Andre_Dragosch. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Fed announced another rate cut plus short-end liquidity actions he describes as QE not QE, and yield curves are resteepening, source @Andre_Dragosch. According to @Andre_Dragosch, this backdrop signals continued record-high global money supply growth, a liquidity factor with direct implications for crypto market risk appetite and BTC volatility, source @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin (BTC) functions as a 'CDS' on sovereign bonds, a view he reposted in light of the latest Japanese government bond (JGB) market developments (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, this framing implies BTC reflects rising sovereign credit stress, with particular relevance when JGB markets experience dislocations or heightened volatility (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, BTC’s macro role should be interpreted through sovereign risk dynamics during bond market turbulence (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025).

According to André Dragosch on X (Dec 10, 2025), Bitcoin (BTC) average returns around FOMC windows are 5D +0.9%, 10D +3.9%, 20D +11.1%, and 50D +28.6% (Source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). The corresponding excess returns versus non-FOMC baselines are 5D -0.9%, 10D ~0%, 20D +2.1%, and 50D -0.9% (Source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). Excess performance is defined as event performance minus the average performance over the same horizon, such as 5D, 10D, 20D, or 50D (Source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). With excess performance fluctuating around 0%, the data indicate almost no significant performance effect from FOMC meetings on BTC compared to non-FOMC dates, suggesting limited historical alpha for event-timed BTC trades around FOMC outcomes (Source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin’s average path across all FOMC events since July 2010 trends higher, but the meetings’ direct impact is short-lived (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 10, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, after adjusting for BTC’s structural upward drift, FOMC meetings tend to behave as a sell-the-news event with below-average short-term performance (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 10, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, this pattern implies elevated risk of post-announcement fades in BTC, making cautious positioning around the decision and press conference more prudent for short-term traders (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 10, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, BITB and BTCE shares from BitwiseInvest and Bitwise_Europe are trading on the new Roxom exchange, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X (Dec 9, 2025). This confirms these tickers are available on Roxom in addition to other venues, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X (Dec 9, 2025).

According to André Dragosch on X on Dec 9, 2025, the referenced Bitcoin (BTC) chart is extremely outdated and BTC has already bounced off that level, indicating the prior level shown on that chart is no longer actionable for current trading decisions (source: André Dragosch on X).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, cross-asset risk appetite has picked up, a regime that has historically coincided with stronger Bitcoin (BTC) performance. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 9, 2025. According to @Andre_Dragosch, this risk-on backdrop suggests a constructive near-term bias for BTC price action based on historical relationships. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 9, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch on X on Dec 9, 2025, TwentyOne (XXI) is up almost 5 percent in pre-market trading, highlighting early upside momentum before the cash session opens (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 9, 2025). According to the same source, the post did not disclose any catalyst or direct crypto-market linkage, only noting the pre-market price move at that time (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 9, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, their macro factor model indicates an increasing share of BTC’s recent underperformance is explained by non-macro, bitcoin-specific factors, pointing to idiosyncratic drivers dominating short-term returns; source: @Andre_Dragosch on X (Dec 8, 2025). For trading, this supports prioritizing crypto-specific catalysts and risk controls over broad macro hedges when managing BTC exposure, as the explained variance is shifting away from macro factors; source: @Andre_Dragosch on X (Dec 8, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bloomberg Economics’ in-house quant model indicates BTC’s 2025 downside has been largely driven by crypto-specific factors rather than macro variables, with macro conditions remaining supportive throughout the year, source: @Andre_Dragosch citing Bloomberg Economics. According to @Andre_Dragosch, this aligns with the view that idiosyncratic long-term holder (LTH) selling was the primary driver of BTC’s underperformance versus a positive macro backdrop, source: @Andre_Dragosch citing Bloomberg Economics. According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders assessing near-term BTC risk should emphasize crypto-internal flows—especially LTH distribution/selling—over macro shocks given the model’s attribution, source: @Andre_Dragosch citing Bloomberg Economics.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, MicroStrategy’s latest weekly BTC purchase was the largest since July 2025, indicating this week’s buy size exceeded all intervening weeks through early December 2025, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 8, 2025. For traders, this confirms a week-over-week acceleration in corporate BTC accumulation pace at MSTR, a data point that can inform assessments of near-term spot demand concentration, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 8, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Counterpoint Team at BCA Research noted that the fractal dimension of BTC/Gold performance has collapsed, which they said signals an imminent reversal. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the collapse in fractal dimension typically indicates rising herding and excessive one-sided positioning among investors, implying elevated reversal risk in the BTC/Gold cross.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, both his Cross Asset Risk Appetite and Cryptoasset Sentiment measures have recently improved (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 8, 2025). He states that cryptoassets led TradFi sentiment ahead of the recent risk-off downturn and the subsequent reversal, positioning crypto sentiment as a leading indicator around these regime shifts (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 8, 2025). For trading, the post underscores monitoring crypto sentiment to anticipate changes in broader risk appetite across traditional markets (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 8, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Polymarket pricing shows a 60% probability that Bitcoin falls below $80,000 before year-end, citing Steve Hanke’s post on X dated Dec 7, 2025 that referenced Polymarket data. @Andre_Dragosch added that this was probably the bottom in hindsight, based on his post on X dated Dec 7, 2025. This prediction market pricing indicates elevated downside risk for BTC into year-end per Polymarket data referenced by @steve_hanke on X.

According to @Andre_Dragosch on X (Dec 7, 2025), long-term holder selling has suppressed Bitcoin’s price below its fundamental value in both absolute and relative terms, indicating a supply-driven discount that is relevant for trading decisions [source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 7, 2025]. According to @Andre_Dragosch, this dynamic underscores the impact of LTH distribution on BTC’s near-term pricing versus fundamentals, a factor traders should monitor when sizing positions and managing risk [source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 7, 2025].