According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin could be broken by quantum computers within 2–9 years, with the highest probability in 4–5 years if the network does not upgrade its cryptography, a risk he terms the Quantum Event Horizon, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Dec 19, 2025. Bitcoin relies on ECDSA secp256k1 for transaction signatures, which are vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm on sufficiently large quantum computers, grounding the technical risk thesis for traders, source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide (ECDSA secp256k1) and P. W. Shor (1994) Algorithms for Quantum Computation. NIST finalized post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024, including ML-DSA (CRYSTALS-Dilithium) for signatures and ML-KEM (CRYSTALS-Kyber) for key encapsulation, indicating a potential migration path markets will monitor for Bitcoin security upgrades, source: NIST news release, July 2024, Finalization of First PQC Standards (FIPS 203/204). Security-risk headlines have historically coincided with higher crypto volatility, suggesting BTC options skew and downside hedging may reprice around quantum-risk narratives, source: Bank for International Settlements, BIS Bulletin No. 65 (2022) on crypto market shocks and volatility.