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May 12: No Hype Needed for BTC

Matrixport Lookout   May 12, 2020 00:00 3 Min Read

Trading Crypto with Eugene is a series of daily commentary of market analysis and trading advice shared by Eugene Ng of Matrixport, a veteran trader with 10 years of experience in top-tier global investment banks. If you like the article, please follow us here on Blockchain.News so you won't miss our future publications.
 
BTC largely unchanged in the last 24 hours post the halving with hash rate dipping slightly. With the halving behind us now, you've 1,458 days to talk about the next for those suffering from hype withdrawal symptoms. What's more interesting than the halving yesterday was Paul Tudor Jones admitting that he has 1-2% of his assets in bitcoin and that it's a "great speculation". First, it appears that he has bought BTC before the halving. Whether he has bought for his own personal assets or his 22bn BVI fund remains unclear. Then he cushioned his BTC investment as a "great speculation" in a way is a "hedge" should halving take a massive dump; even though it is evident that he's now very fond of BTC in his latest newsletter (let me know if you want it). 
 
With the halving hype and BTC displaying a massive +75% gain over the past 11 weeks, I'm holding my view that there is a likelihood of a retracement (i.e. technical MACD bearish cross in the past 24 hours). All I want for BTC is to settle into a higher consolidation range between 8k to 10k base for it to move substantially higher later. Correlation between S&P 500 and BTC may also start to increase in the near-term. My view in S&P 500 is becoming a hated rally with a mountain of cash piling and extreme bearish sentiment; so pain trade is higher (S&P 500 > 3000). This is starting to morph into one of the most hated non-participative rallies with risk-parity fund equity beta near 10 year low, CTAs short equities, HF net leverage at multi year lows and US equity futures positions multi year low. So if BTC follows S&P, it should support a "higher trading range". 

Trade strategy this week? Offload the remaining of my Long Volatility trades. If BTC gets to $9,000 to $9,300, worth a short for this week. For those more aggressive, you can try $8,800 region. And if we break $8,000 (200 DMA), I'll look to buy around $7,600/$7,200. Message me if you want to discuss markets or trade ideas. Gdluck. 


200 DMA at $8,015 been supportive so far... bulls need to stay above this level...
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In the longer term, we are still in a healthy upward trending channel.... 
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Hashrate dipping very slightly; at least this shows that miners are well-prepared going into halving.... (or at least for now)...

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The more bearish we are, the higher S&P goes. Contrarian and as frustrating this may sound, the good folks at Jeffries compiled this; counting every incident, the 12-month performance averages 14% and looking two years out, it’s still over 25%. If you remove 2008, the 12-month and 24-month returns average 21% and 31%, respectively, and returns have been positive every single time... 

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Disclaimer
Opinions expressed are solely the analyst's own and do not express the views of Matrixport the company. 
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the contributor and do not necessarily reflect the view of Blockchain.News.

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