When China Yuan Sneezes, Bitcoin Wears a Mask
Bunch of interesting headlines in the past 24 horus with Facebook renaming Calibra as Novi, quite a clear signal to the market that Libra project isn't a FB project per se, RBI allowing banking services for crypto companies and GS telling their clients that BTC isn't an asset class.
As I am typing my late note, BTC got pumped $200 with some speculating that Chinese's Yuan weakness may be supportive for BTC as historical data has shown. I generally am not buying this narrative (it only happened during 2015/6) especially given the current macro backdrop with gold sliding and stocks grinding higher. My thesis continues to be that larger accounts (i.e. whales who own > 1000 BTC) have started to liquidate (which I shared yesterday that this number have continued to decline for the past two weeks), and potentially chase/re-allocate into equities.
Trade strategy for today: For those who want to sell at better levels, $9.4/9.7k are worth a short there. I'm still biased to be shorting on rallies, I just don't see sufficient catalyst in the short term for us to break significantly higher; in fact, I expect us to chop and trade sideways into summer. In terms of vol, 1-month implied volatility staying rather elevated > 70%, which makes me a seller, as I expect vols to head back into 50%. I like shorting the BTC $8K 9-day puts for 22% annualized. Gdluck!
BTC underperforms Nasdaq before the last March 12 crash... is this a sign of things to come?
But hold on, guys are saying China's CNY deval is great for BTC... Could we see a repeat of 2015 and 2016? Hmmm.. I am not sure, I'm not buying this in the current macro backdrop.
Technicals still showing BTC in downtrend mode, so bulls and bears in a tight contest here...
Gold breakout struggling, so will BTC follow too? Goldman technical strategies sharing this chart... Will be key to watch 1721...