BTC Holds Above $111K Short-Term Holder Cost Basis as Selling Pressure Mounts

Bitcoin continues trading above the critical short-term holder cost basis near $111,000, though Glassnode's latest weekly report flags growing headwinds that could test this key support level in coming sessions.

The on-chain analytics firm's Week 9 Market Pulse, released February 23, 2026, identifies a notable shift in market dynamics: selling pressure has increased meaningfully while trading volume has declined. That's a combination that typically precedes choppy price action.

Why the STH Cost Basis Matters Right Now

The short-term holder realized price—essentially the average buy-in for investors holding BTC less than 155 days—has historically acted as a bull market floor. When price holds above it, newer buyers remain in profit and have less incentive to panic sell. Drop below, and the calculus changes fast.

Glassnode notes the market has shifted "from a strong buyer's market towards a more balanced playing field." Translation: the easy money from recent momentum may be drying up.

Institutional Appetite Cooling

The report highlights concerning signals from the ETF market. Capital inflows have declined notably, while unrealized gains among ETF holders have compressed. This suggests institutional players are taking a wait-and-see approach rather than aggressively adding exposure at current levels.

Meanwhile, the derivatives picture shows traders hedging their bets. Options activity has picked up—typically a sign of uncertainty rather than conviction. Long positioning has increased marginally, but Glassnode characterizes the overall stance as "cautious optimism" rather than bullish aggression.

Network Fundamentals Mixed

Not everything looks bearish. On-chain user engagement has actually increased, suggesting genuine interest in the network beyond pure speculation. However, transaction pressure has eased, which could reflect that cautious sentiment filtering down to actual usage patterns.

The volume decline flagged by Glassnode deserves attention. Price moves on thin liquidity tend to be less reliable and more prone to sharp reversals. Traders should watch whether volume picks up on any directional break from the current $111K range.

What Traders Should Watch

The $111,000 zone represents the immediate battleground. A decisive break below the short-term holder cost basis would likely trigger the kind of sentiment shift Glassnode warns about—from mild anxiety to active selling among recent buyers. Conversely, renewed volume on an upside push would suggest the consolidation is building energy rather than exhausting it.

With institutional flows cooling and derivatives traders hedging rather than pressing bets, the burden of proof sits with bulls to demonstrate this pause is accumulation rather than distribution.