Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Overhead Supply Challenges Amid Range-Bound Market

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to navigate a challenging market landscape, characterized by a fragile range and significant overhead supply. The cryptocurrency's price has faced rejection near $93,000, with support identified around $81,000, creating a battleground defined by these key levels, according to Glassnode.

On-Chain Dynamics

Bitcoin's current trading range reflects a structurally fragile market, as dense supply between $93,000 and $120,000 restricts recovery attempts. The inability to reclaim critical thresholds, such as the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500, continues to cap upside momentum. Despite sell pressure, patient buyer demand has managed to defend the True Market Mean near $81,300, preventing a deeper market breakdown.

The supply in loss has increased to 6.7 million BTC, the highest level observed in this cycle, signaling mounting investor frustration. This pattern mirrors early transitional phases of previous cycles, where increased loss realization often preceded more pronounced bearish conditions.

Off-Chain Insights

Spot market demand remains selective, with only sporadic bursts of buy-side activity failing to translate into sustained accumulation. Corporate treasury flows are episodic, contributing to volatility but not providing consistent structural support. Futures markets have seen open interest trending lower, indicating reduced speculative conviction rather than forced deleveraging.

Options markets further reinforce the range-bound regime, with front-end volatility compressing and downside risk remaining priced but stable. Large December expiries are pinning price action, suggesting that a significant shift will require either seller exhaustion or a renewed influx of liquidity.

Market Outlook

Bitcoin remains caught between structural support around $81,000 and persistent overhead sell pressure. The market's current dynamics suggest that significant changes will depend on either a reduction in selling pressure above $95,000 or an increase in liquidity capable of absorbing supply and reclaiming key cost-basis levels.