Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Resistance at $94K, Market Tone Turns Defensive
Lawrence Jengar Dec 15, 2025 16:58
Bitcoin's recent rejection at the $94K level signals a shift to a defensive market tone, with key indicators pointing to sell-side aggression and cautious derivatives positioning.
Bitcoin's recent attempt to breach the $94,000 level was met with firm resistance, leading to a decline towards the $87,000 region, according to a report by Glassnode. This movement has unwound the recent upward momentum and re-established a more defensive market tone.
Market Overview
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has weakened significantly, falling back towards neutral territory, while spot market conditions have deteriorated. The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has moved sharply into negative territory, signaling increased sell-side aggression. Additionally, spot volume continues to compress towards its lower statistical band, indicating thinning liquidity and reduced conviction behind price movements.
In the derivatives market, futures open interest has edged lower, suggesting light de-risking rather than full-scale capitulation. The perpetual CVD has dropped below its lower band, reflecting dominant sell pressure. Despite the market drawdown, funding rates have risen, indicating persistent long-side positioning that may be vulnerable if market weakness persists. Options markets remain active, with stable open interest and deeply negative volatility spreads, highlighting sustained demand for downside protection.
On-Chain Activity
On-chain indicators present a mixed picture. Active addresses have eased slightly, but entity-adjusted transfer volume has surged above its upper band, indicating elevated capital movement. Fee pressure has declined, pointing to softer block-space demand. Capital flow indicators remain fragile, with Realized Cap Change subdued. Supply dynamics show increased influence from short-term holders and an elevated share of hot capital, increasing the market's sensitivity to volatility.
Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows have provided some relief, with net inflows rebounding strongly despite softer trading volumes. However, the ETF Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has eased slightly, and profit metrics remain muted, suggesting positioning is cautious rather than euphoric.
Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin's rejection from the $94K level has reinforced a risk-off, consolidation-driven market regime. While some indicators hint at underlying activity and institutional interest, overall conviction remains uneven. This leaves the market susceptible to further downside or prolonged range-bound trading until a stronger demand emerges.
For more detailed insights, please refer to the original report by Glassnode.
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